The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday said that after a strong rainy season, the post-monsoon months will also be good.
It predicts rainfall across the country in October to be ‘above normal’ at 115 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA). The cumulative all-India rainfall for October is around 75.4 mm.
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The southern peninsula — comprising regions such as Tamil Nadu, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Kerala, and south interior Karnataka — will get strong Northeastern monsoon rains at 112 per cent of the LPA. The LPA for South India during October-December is 334.13 mm.
Releasing the monsoon performance in 2024 and the forecast for post-monsoon months, IMD’s director general Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said due to the presence of La Nina, the winter season could be severe. However, the extent of that severity will be known later.
He elaborated that in October-December, rainfall over many areas of central India, south peninsular India, and some parts of northeast India may be “above-normal.”
Most parts of northwest India, some parts of northeast India and the southernmost parts are likely to receive normal to below-normal rainfall.
A good post-monsoon shower after strong rains should further aid agriculture production and spur strong rabi sowing. However, excess showers could damage crops.
Meanwhile, the just-concluded monsoon season ended with almost 8 per cent surplus rain. Mohapatra said back-to-back low-pressure systems and more deep depressions caused strong rain this monsoon.
He said that from June to September, the country on the whole experienced 14 low-pressure systems (LPS) against a long-term average of 13 LPS.
The number of days affected by LPS was 69 during the four months against the average of 55 days.
“In June 2024, the monsoon was 11 per cent below normal. It was followed by 9 per cent surplus rain in July, 15.3 per cent surplus rain in August, and 12 per cent excess rain in September,” Mohapatra said.
He said IMD’s forecast for all the months of the monsoon season was accurate except for August, when it had predicted normal rains. But it turned out to be excess.
Mohapatra said the spatial distribution of monsoon rains as predicted by IMD in April and May 2024 has come true in almost 80 per cent of the cases. It said that between 2014 and 2024, the short-range forecast improved from 67 per cent accuracy to 85 per cent.
The good rain in June to September has pushed up kharif sowing to almost 111 million hectares against a normal acreage of 109.6 million hectares, according to the latest data released on September 27.
Normal acreage is the average area covered in the last five years, ending in 2023.
First Published: Oct 01 2024 | 8:58 PM IST
