Allan Lichtman, often dubbed the “Nostradamus” of US Presidential Polls, is blaming the “explosion” of disinformation and billionaire Elon Musk for his incorrect prediction that Kamala Harris would win the 2024 election. Mr Lichtman, a professor at American University, is renowned for accurately forecasting nine of the last ten US elections. However, last week, the historian and political scientist took a loss on his remarkable record by predicting that Vice President Kamala Harris would win the 2024 presidential race. Now, speaking to News Nation, Mr Lichtman provided a deeper explanation for his incorrect forecast and pointed to conservative media platforms and Elon Musk, who pored millions into Donald Trump’s campaign, as a factor in his inaccurate prediction.
“Number one, disinformation. We’ve always had disinformation, but disinformation has exploded to an unprecedented degree. You talked about a grievance election, but a lot of that grievance was driven by disinformation,” Mr Lichtman told the outlet.
The political scientist continued by naming X (formerly Twitter) owner Elon Musk, who appeared at some of Donald Trump’s campaign rallies and became one of the loudest media cheerleaders. He claimed that Mr Musk’s microblogging platform was used to spread misinformation about issues like immigration, hurricane relief and the war in Ukraine.
“We’ve seen something brand new this time – billionaire Elon Musk putting his thumb on the scales,” Mr Lichtman said.
“It’s been reported that his misinformation had had billions, literally billions of views and this has spread to every aspect of this election,” he added.
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Mr Lichtman’s method for forecasting the presidential election results was based on a historical index model he dubs the “Keys to the White House”. This unique system analyses the political landscape through the lens of 13 true-false statements focused on the incumbent president’s party. If six or more of the statements are false, then the challenger is predicted to win.
In the interview with News Nation, the academic acknowledged that his method “maybe” needs to be changed in light of last week’s events. “The premise of the keys is that a rational, pragmatic electorate decides whether the White House party has governed well enough to get four more years. But if the views of the White House party are controlled by disinformation, particularly driven by those who are so rich that they have extraordinary influence beyond anyone else, then maybe the premise of the keys need to be changed,” Mr Lichtman said.
Notably, Allan Lichtman has been forecasting the results of US presidential elections since 1984. He has accurately predicted the last nine out of 10 presidential races. Previously, he even forecasted that Mr Trump would be impeached during his presidency – which he was, twice.
