A report titled “Managing Monsoons in a Warming Climate” has revealed that over 84 per cent of the Indian districts are prone to severe heatwave and most of India’s districts have been witnessing extremely humid heat even during the monsoon months.
Around 70 per cent of the districts also experience increased frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall.
“We hypothesise that India is witnessing an extended summer season in the monsoon seasons beyond rainy days. We believe that, overall, India is witnessing an extended summer-like condition in the June, July, August, and September
(JJAS) months,” the report mentioned.
The extreme heat wave has increased 15 times across the March-April-May (MAM) and June-July-August-September (JJAS) months in the last three decades in India. Based on the data obtained from the Indian Space Research Organisation, India Meteorological Department, and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather, the research team concluded that India faced a 19-fold increase in extreme heat in the last decade.
Abinash Mohanty, IPE Global climate change and sustainability practice head who shared the study said that the extreme heat and rainfall are the result of a 0.6-degree rise in the temperature. The reports mention, “El Nino [associated with ocean surface warming in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean] is gaining momentum and making its early presence felt across the globe with India facing the extreme events of turbulence more in patterns than waves.”
Mohanty also stated that the landslides in Kerala are the result of incessant and erratic rainfall episodes. The sudden and abrupt downpours are the result of a testament that the climate is changing. The analysis also suggests that 8 out of 10 Indians are exposed to extreme events by 2036 and the numbers speak volumes.
He also embraced hyper-granular risk assessments establishing climate-risk observatories that should become a national imperative protecting Indian agriculture, industry and large-scale infrastructure projects from climate change.
The extended summer-like situation is extending into the JJAS months in the country. Reports claim that districts in plain and hilly regions are more likely to witness these trends that will have deterrent impacts on lives, livelihoods and economic sectors. “These trends align with findings from various studies that show that land surface temperatures across India have been rising,” the report added.
The land sensitivity assessment conducted for the report found that over 55 per cent of land use and land cover change in the country was concentrated in the hotspot districts. The anthropocentric activities are the main reason behind large-scale changes in climatic patterns. Some hotspot states facing extreme heatwaves and erratic incessant rainfall events include Gujarat, Rajasthan, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Meghalaya, and Manipur.
A heat risk observatory is being established to help identify, assess and project chronic and acute heat risk at a hyper-granular level to prepare against heat-related extremities like urban heat islands, water stress, vector-borne diseases, crop loss, etc. also devising risk management instruments to avoid heat risk and extreme rainfall events.
First Published: Aug 06 2024 | 5:39 PM IST
