The Southwest monsoon is expected to begin its withdrawal from the extreme northwestern regions of the country on Monday, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
The IMD said that the conditions are becoming favourable for the withdrawal of the Southwest monsoon from West Rajasthan and Kutch around September 23.
Despite this expected start, the full retreat may take longer. The met department predicts that widespread rainfall will continue over parts of Gujarat and western India throughout the week, which could delay the withdrawal in those areas.
In addition, the IMD has forecast the formation of a new low-pressure system in the west-central Bay of Bengal by Tuesday. This weather system is expected to bring an increase in rainfall over the southern parts of the country in the coming days. Areas such as Marathwada, Vidarbha, coastal Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Rayalaseema, Kerala, and Mahe are likely to experience more rain in the next two days.
Furthermore, the IMD has predicted heavy rainfall over Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh until September 27. Other regions, including Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, Odisha, Arunachal Pradesh, West Bengal, Sikkim, Jharkhand, and Bihar, are also expected to receive intense rainfall until September 29.
While the monsoon retreat has been delayed, the weather conditions suggest the monsoon may begin to pull back soon from northwest India, though the timeline for a full withdrawal remains uncertain due to ongoing weather activity across the country.
IMD monsoon: Kharif crops
India has seen below-normal rainfall this year, following a below-average monsoon last year. This boost in rainfall during August supported the sowing of kharif crops, offering relief after the previous year’s low production. However, the heavy rains in September now pose a risk to crops just ahead of the harvest season and may impact inflation, slowing its decline.
Although the southwest monsoon season (June-September) began with dry conditions, overall rainfall has been 5 per cent above the normal level so far.
As many as 12 states, including Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Gujarat, have experienced ‘excess’ rainfall, meaning they received 20-59 per cent more rain than the long-period average (LPA). In contrast, east and northeast India have faced a 16 per cent rainfall deficit since June 1, the IMD stated.
First Published: Sep 23 2024 | 4:54 PM IST
