Haryana, which will go to Assembly elections on October 1, is a prosperous state but faces a high unemployment rate. Additionally, the state has been spending relatively little on generating assets in proportion to its economic size.
In terms of prosperity, Haryana’s per capita income has been lower than only Goa, Sikkim, Delhi, Karnataka, and Telangana in recent years and much higher than the national average over the last decade.
For instance, the state’s per capita income has consistently been around 70 per cent higher than the national average each year. The gap was slightly over 70 per cent in 2014-15 and is projected to rise to around 77.8 per cent in 2023-24. Critics may argue that the per capita income of the state is based on advance estimates for 2023-24 and not the actual figures. To address such concerns, one can refer to 2022-23, when the gap stood at around 75 per cent.
The state economy grew by 7.9 per cent in 2022-23, much faster than the national economy, which grew by seven per cent. The state government expects its economy to grow at eight per cent, slightly lower than the national economy’s growth rate of 8.2 per cent. Even if the actual data matches the projections, the higher base of growth in Haryana could partly explain this difference.
The agriculture, industry, and services sectors are estimated to contribute 18 per cent, 31 per cent, and 51 per cent to the state’s economy, respectively, during 2024-25, according to Delhi-based PRS Legislative Research. This signifies the characteristics of a developed state.
The state government’s revenue deficit is now estimated to be 1.2 per cent of GSDP during 2023-24, lower than the initially budgeted 1.5 per cent. This reduction can be attributed to the state government’s effective cost-cutting measures on the expenditure front, as noted by PRS Legislative Research.
Even so, capital outlay—the sum allocated to generating assets—is projected to remain a minuscule 1.3 per cent of GSDP during 2023-24 (revised estimates). It has remained below two per cent since the Covid-hit 2020-21. In the three years preceding 2020-21, it exceeded two per cent of GSDP.
The actual expenditure on capital outlay in 2022-23 was 47.8 per cent lower than budget estimates. For 2023-24, revised estimates are 21.8 per cent lower than the budget estimates.
This shortfall is due to committed expenditures such as salaries, pensions, and interest payments, which cannot be curtailed, at least in the short term. For instance, capital outlay was 64 per cent of revenue receipts in 2022-23 and is estimated to be around 60 per cent in 2023-24 (revised estimates). It is again projected to remain around 60 per cent in 2024-25 (budget estimates).
The state’s debt is estimated to constitute 26.2 per cent of GSDP in 2024-25, slightly up from 26 per cent the year before. It has remained in this range—25-26 per cent—except for the Covid-hit 2020-21 when it exceeded 28 per cent and 2014-15 when it stood at 21.2 per cent.
Employment remains a concern for Haryana. The state’s unemployment rate was 6.1 per cent during 2022-23, exceeding that of 29 other states and union territories as well as the national average of 3.2 per cent, according to the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS).
Among individuals aged 15-29 (the young labour force), the rate was higher at 17.5 per cent compared to 10 per cent for India.
The PLFS did not show disguised unemployment. Additionally, many of the employed are self-employed, casual, and low-paid workers.
The labour force participation rate, which indicates those willing to work as a proportion of the population, in Haryana stood at 36.3 per cent during the year, lower than the national average of 42.4 per cent.
Counting for the state assembly elections is scheduled for October 4.
The state currently has 20.1 million general electors, including 0.25 million senior citizens aged 85 and above and 0.45 million first-time voters aged between 18 and 19.
Voters will cast their ballots across 90 assembly constituencies, of which 17 are reserved for scheduled castes, while there are no scheduled tribe seats.
In preparation for the elections, Haryana will see an increase of 817 polling stations compared to 2019, bringing the total to 20,629, with 7,132 located in urban areas and the remainder in rural regions.
First Published: Aug 18 2024 | 2:59 PM IST
