100-yr green card wait: Indian-American techie warns students, job seekers | Personal Finance

But what exactly is a green card?

A green card, officially called a Permanent Resident Card, is a document issued by the US government. It grants the holder permanent resident status, allowing them to live and work in the US indefinitely. This card also opens up the possibility of becoming a US citizen after a few years, usually between three to five.

Suren’s warning came in response to a post by US Ambassador Eric Garcetti, who was promoting Education USA Fairs across India. These fairs are designed to attract Indian students to US universities, offering them the chance to meet representatives from more than 80 institutions. Ambassador Garcetti’s post read, “Students and parents, I’m thrilled to invite you to our #EducationUSA Fairs, which are taking place all over India this month.”

However, Suren was quick to counter the ambassador’s optimistic message. In his post, he accused US officials of misleading prospective students, cautioning, “Please don’t come to #USA. These are lies. Don’t believe me? Talk to anyone who came here to study in the last decade.” He urged US immigration authorities to update these outdated visa policies, saying, “Please fix 1950’s-era visa policies @USCIS.”

Suren’s post went viral, resonating with many who have experienced the harsh realities of the US immigration system.

Why is this a problem for Indian students?

Netizens react

Suren’s post sparked a wave of reactions on social media, with many users echoing his concerns. One user shared, “Yes. True. One day I asked my coworker when you are becoming a citizen in the USA, who is on H-1B visa. I was shocked to know it is a 100-year waiting list.” This comment reflects the widespread disbelief and frustration among those facing similar challenges.

Another user, Satya, suggested that working in India might be a better option for today’s youth, stating, “Smart people with good education and talent have more opportunities in India over the next decade or so. GC wait in USA is miserable! Not worth it unless you just go there for the above mentioned factors. Immigration is a big pain point now more than ever especially for ‘legal immigrants’.”

What’s the real problem?

Ajay Sharma, an immigration consultant and the founder of Abhinav Immigration Services, breaks it down for us:

Getting a green card and becoming a permanent resident in the USA, or any other country is a privilege, not a right. Every year, the US sets a limit on how many green cards it can give out, and these limits are set by laws. These quotas decide how many green cards can be issued each year, and they apply to everyone—no matter where you’re from or what visa you’re on.

Here’s the thing: The US can only issue up to 675,000 green cards a year. But as of February 2024, there were a whopping 34.7 million people waiting in line for one. This means some people might end up waiting nearly 50 years! It’s a long, tough wait, and it shows just how much patience and determination you need to see this process through.

Now, let’s zoom in on the numbers. For 2024, only 140,000 employment-based green cards are available, and that’s the category H-1B visa holders fall into. So, it’s easy to see why the wait times are getting longer and longer.

Why is the wait so long?

“It is simply a question of mismatch between demand and supply. Everyone who applies for an H-1B visa knows this from the start and understands the struggles involved,” Ajay Sharma tells Business Standard.

There are different ways to apply for a green card: family sponsorship, employment, special categories like refugees, and a few others. H-1B visa holders applying for green cards are just one of these groups.

But the quota isn’t the only issue. There’s another big hurdle: you need your employer’s support to apply for a green card. The process starts with the employer you’re working for on your H-1B visa. They have to try and find a US citizen or green card holder to fill the job first. If they can’t, then they can nominate you for a green card.

“Another worry is that the rules about whether your spouse can work keep changing, depending on who’s in power. This uncertainty makes things even tougher.

Then there’s the issue of kids. They’re only considered dependents until they turn 21, so families are under pressure as they wait for their green cards,” he explains.

“And here’s the kicker: just because you apply doesn’t mean you’ll get it. Your application could be rejected for any number of reasons, leaving you in limbo for years,” he adds.

What’s the current situation with Green Cards?

For the financial year 2024, around 34.7 million people have applied for green cards. To put that in perspective, only about 10 million applied back in 1996. The US government plans to approve roughly 1.1 million green card applications this year, meaning only 3 out of every 100 applicants will be successful. The rest will have to keep waiting—or may never get approved.

Notably, a large number of those applying for green cards are of Asian descent, with Indian Americans making up a significant portion. These individuals often hold advanced degrees and are vital contributors to the US economy, particularly in fields like technology, medicine, and academia.

How many Indians are in line for green cards?

According to data from the US Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS), over a million Indians are currently in line for green cards. These individuals often face waiting periods that can extend for decades, a situation exacerbated by annual caps and per-country limits on the number of green cards issued. This backlog affects not only the principal applicants but also their families, delaying their access to permanent residency and, consequently, citizenship.

The Department of Homeland Security estimated that in 2022, there were 12.9 million green card holders living in the US, with 9.2 million eligible for citizenship. The Covid-19 pandemic temporarily slowed down admissions, but the numbers are bouncing back, with over a million new green card holders in 2022 alone.

What does the data say about the green card backlog?

A study by the National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP) using USCIS data reveals that over 1.2 million Indians are waiting in the top three employment-based green card categories. This backlog includes individuals in high-demand fields such as technology, medicine, and academia. The waiting period for many of these applicants can stretch into decades, with some projections suggesting it could take nearly two centuries to clear the backlog without legislative intervention.

The primary cause of these long wait times is the annual limit on employment-based green cards, set at 140,000, combined with a 7% per-country cap. This cap disproportionately affects countries with larger populations of highly skilled professionals, such as India. As a result, despite the high demand for technical talent in the US, many Indian immigrants face significant delays in obtaining permanent residency.